“How much luck is there in poker?”
Sunday, December 7, 2008 - Annie Duke
I have been thinking lately about what the word “luck” really means…especially when applied to poker. Last night I was doing a corporate appearance in Phoenix and I got asked the most common question I get asked at those things, “How much luck is there in poker?” The intention of the question is always to get the answer, “Tons.” But I think the question is unclear because it is always unclear to me what the asker means by the word “luck.”
The thing is that I think of luck as an occurrence that goes against what is expected. I think that is a fair definition. So the question I want the answer to is if there is something that will happen 18% of the time and it happens is that really unexpected? If you have Aces and some else has Fives and they beat you, is that really lucky or are you witnessing something completely mathematically predictable? I am confused by this. I think you are just witnessing something that will happen 18% of the time and, thus, is mathematically predictable.
Here is my deeper take. If I get it all in with my 55 in a spot where I am getting 5 to 1 on my money or more then I am making money on the call. I am getting more money out of the pot than I will lose in the long run knowing I will win the pot about 18% of the time. If I hit it or if I don’t it is neither lucky nor unlucky because in either case I was making money on the play. So it is not luck but good play. Now, If I get my money in with 55 in a spot where I am getting 4 to 1 or worse then if I hit the hand I am losing money and if I don’t hit it I am losing money. Doesn’t really matter and it is not lucky or unlucky either way. It is just bad play.
I guess on that I would say that in poker the true meaning of luck would be getting your money in on a hand where you are 100% certain you are taking a bad price hoping that on that one try things will go your way. Then you are going against good math and good play just hoping things work out in a lucky way for you. I guess that is what tilting is: playing in a way that is going to lose you a lot of money in the long run hoping it doesn’t happen this one particular time.
Maybe that is what luck means: Tilting!
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Tags: Annie Duke, Poker Strategy
February 20th, 2009 at 7:59 am
For novice LUCK may exist but the very obvious to poker players that your skill level determines your long-term profitability as a player.