Math in Poker vs Intuition

Tuesday, December 16, 2008 - smokin_aces

In last weeks ‘Ask a Pro’, Scott Ian was featured answering a question. The nature of the question was basically an inquiry into speeding up the poker learning curve. As most likely know, Scott is a relative newcomer to the world of poker, but has quickly made a name for himself in an arena other than rock. I want to focus on one part of his answer. It concerns learning the math that should be the basis for important game decisions.

“So to answer your question I would say that learning the math that backs up your decisions is key. It will really help you make the correct decisions and in the long run you will profit. As you play longer and you start to develop your own game, a lot of these decisions will be second nature, but at the beginning knowing the math behind the decision will make this game of so little information a bit more transparent and hopefully you’ll always get your money in good!”

This is a technique that has consumed a large part of my spare time thinking. So much of what we do and what happens in our immediate surroundings can be broken down into a series of odds. Since i’ve gotten deeper into the game of poker, i find the mindset permeating into my daily routine. I look for my ‘outs’ in a given situation. I survey the potential outcomes that are in my favour and make a logic and gut based estimate on my best course of action. Just this morning while driving to work (late) I came to the familiar crossroads where each day i ponder taking a different route. Each route with the potential of being faster, or not, depending on a variety of factors including traffic, light pattern, construction etc. My mind is now becoming trained at making split second, calculated decisions. I’m not always right, in fact i’m mostly NOT right for what seems like forever, and then once in a while i’ll have a few days in a row where I seemingly catch a few breaks.

In addition to odds calculation, I often draw loose analogies to ‘pot size’ in my daily life. In business, I tend to break down decisions by looking at the ‘pot size’ of a given situation. This does not have to be a financial equation at all, in fact more often than not this doesn’t relate directly to money. How much time have certain parties invested, what do they stand to gain or lose versus what they put in, how committed is someone, how much can I trust the signs they’re showing me, how much do I stand to gain versus how much I have to put in? etc.

It gets interesting when you must make a judgement based on little more than insufficient information, a general knowledge of odds, intuition and discipline. For example, if the value of investment in a situation is ‘x’ and the potential payoff is ‘5x’, but the odds it will payoff are 1 in 4, my discipline tells me to go for it every time. In the long run I ’should’ end up on top. Run that scenario 4 times and I lose ‘3x’ but gain ‘5x’ for a profit of ‘2x’. We all know it doesn’t work out quite like that though does it? Just like Scott Ian said, we can only make the game a “bit more transparent”. Scott, if you’re reading this, next time let us know how to train your intuition. This is the question everyone wants the answer to. Can it be learned? Can it be measured? To my knowledge no evidence exists of legitimate scientific testing resulting in proof of intuition in humans. If it does, wouldn’t you love to see it?