WSOP 10-Step Challenge Prop Bet
Wednesday, February 25, 2009 - HollywoodDave
OK so call us sick and twisted or too competitive for our own good, but I’ve got a prop bet going with Annie right now that promises to truly add to the level of degeneracy in my quest to become the best professional gambler i can be. Shortly after UB launched the new Steps sngs, she called me with the challenge to race her to a WSOP 12k main event prize package. But the catch is, we can only buy in at Step One for 10 cents!!!
Yup…first one to make it thru all 10 steps to the WSOP seat wins the bet. But this is hardly just about winning our way thru the ranks — cuz if we bust out at any point in the steps, we have to go all the way back down to step 1 and start comletely from scratch!! Basically there are 4 possible results in every step tourney — win and get a ticket for the next level, get a ticket to repeat the same level, get a ticket to go DOWN a level, or busto!!!
So the secret to winning this prop bet is to accumulate as many of the lower-level tickets as possible before taking a shot at the higher steps. So far i’ve turned 18 step one entries (less than 2 bucks outta my pocket, baby!) into 4 beautiful step 4 tickets. But that definitely won’t be enough to take the shot at the big step 10 nut, so my plan is to pick up 20 or so step 4 tickets before going for the gold!
So far Annie has only made step 3, but has accumulated something like 20 step 2 tickets, so I think i’ve got a slight edge. Doing the math makes me think, on average, a highly skilled player would still need to play something like 1000 step ones in order to win a WSOP seat (only buying in at the first level, never rebuying higher). So if i’m at 4 step 4 tix at 18 step one buy-ins, I’m thinking i’ll blast thru a cool 100 step ones to get to around 20 step 4’s and then take the shot. Still far shy of the 1000 i’d need to play on average, but i’ll take a 10% gamble and see how it goes.
The truly sick thing here is the stakes — being as competitive as Annie and I are, of course its not about some huge amount of money or some kind of sick humiliation. Rather, in these tough economic times, the loser has to take the winner and a guest out for a fabulously lavish dinner at the location of the winner’s choice this summer in Vegas at the WSOP!
Never one to pass up a good months-long struggle against the odds, Annie’s boyfriend Joe (also a good friend of mine) got in on the action to make it a 3-way prop bet and race to the WSOP seat… so if you see myself, Annie, or Joe playing in the lower-level step sngs over the next few months, come say hi & cheer us on….
…Actually, come cheer ME on, but make sure to give them plenty of harassment! I’ve gotta exploit every possible edge at my disposal to win this thing, so everyone’s welcome to join in the fun. Rock on –
-hd.
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Tags: Annie Duke, Hollywood Dave, online pro, Poker Strategy, prop bet, STEPS tournament, WSOP
February 26th, 2009 at 11:43 am
[...] to replicate Ferguson’s feat (though he started with an initial $10 deposit). And yesterday Hollywood Dave wrote that he and Annie Duke have a prop bet to see who can win an WSOP seat for just ten cents through [...]
February 27th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
[...] of Annie and how competitive she is, did you read the prop bet she has with Hollywood Dave?? Check out his BLOG here. How crazy are my pros? This will be a fun one to [...]
March 18th, 2009 at 11:51 am
I made it to step 9 from 1 a couple of weeks ago…
The strategy that I used to get there was to focus on one game at a time…
The shotgun process does not work…because in the back of your mind you know you have many more of step 4 or step 1’s… That may allow you to break dicipline and make that call or that bet that you normally would not make…
If you are going to do the shot gun approach..
The other thing to do is to do all in derbies at step 1…
Try to get as many players to do all in in the first couple of hands… If you win them… then you have a huge chip stack and if you lose early …you saved time and spend another .10. The trick is to get a huge chip stack as early as possible… I do this regularly and it works out about 40% of the time ….
May 8th, 2009 at 9:49 am
WEHN U GET TO STEP 6 BRO AND LOSE CONSTANTLY THEN U CAN WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE,MY ACES GOT BEAT HEADS 3 HANDED AND GUY HITS MIRACLE CARD JACK ON RIVER TO WIN,I FIND IT HILARIOUSLY FUNNY HOW THESE GAMES ALL SEEM SET UP, EVEN BEING AN OVER AVERAGE PLAYER YOU STILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THE FACT THAT THE HIGHER TOURNEYS ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO CRACK AND THUS IS REASON WHY YOU ALWAYS SLIDE BACK DOWN THE STEPS,..
DONT KNOW WHO ALL THE FAKE PLAYERS ON UB OR AP ARE AS EVERY TIME I LOOK FOR CERTAIN PLAYERS THEY ARE PLAYING YET WHEN I LOOK FOR THEM IN MY LOBBY PAGE THEY DONT SEEM TO BE THERE!
ARE THESE THE “HOUSE” PLAYERS ,EVEN THOUGH IM TOLD NO THEY ARE NOT IM SORRY BUT IM NOT CONVINCED, I THINK THERE ARE CERTAIN PLAYERS PLAYING OUT OF THESE SITES TO MAKE PROFIT FOR THE COMPANYS AND MAKE GENUINE PLAYERS LIKE ME LOSE ON A MORE THAN CONSTANT BASIS, IF U WERE TO REVIEW MY FILES YOU WILL SOON REALISE THAT THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS DOESNT ADD UP TO RANDOM ANF FAIR PLAY…
SO TO PLAY THESE STEPS YOU NEED A BIT MORE THAN LUCK, AS ITS SEEMS YOURE PLAYING AGAINST A 2-1 ADVANTAGE ALL THE TIME.!