Joan Rivers, Celebrity Apprentice and Resulting
Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - Annie Duke
Okay…so you may have noticed a theme with my blogs on Ultimatebet.com that I am always relating my experience on The Apprentice to poker strategy and today’s blog is no exception. I think that my knowledge of poker really helped me on The Apprentice. But, also, I think what happens on the Celebrity Apprentice has a lot of offer us in terms of seeing strategies and thinking that just don’t work. Last blog I talked about tilt and how bad that is in any game you play, how it is completely counterproductive. This week the topic is resulting.
Resulting is a very particular poker term that means assuming that the outcome of a decision determines the quality of a decision. This is such an important concept that poker players came up with a singular term for it: resulting. Tilt is a similar word that is so important that poker players came up with a singular word to describe the concept because we talk about it so much. So Resulting. Why is this so bad?
Well, decisions and outcomes are not linked one to one in any game that involves a random element (this includes poker, Apprentice and life). We can make very poor decisions and have good outcomes, like driving home drunk but making it safely. The fact that you lived does not mean that driving drunk is a good decision. You can also make a very good decision and have a very bad outcome, like driving home safely, following all traffic laws while sober and getting hit by a drunk driver.
How does that relate to The Apprentice? Well, in episode 1 where we had to sell cupcakes for charity, there was a surprise taste test where each team was called and told to bring their best cupcake for a taste test worth $15K to the winner. Melissa was tasked with choosing which cupcake to bring and in choosing chose the cupcake on which one looked the best as opposed to which one tasted the best. I was highly critical of that decision because, clearly, if you are choosing for a taste test you need to pick based on taste. Melissa failed to consult any of the cooks. The players who had cooked had the chef who supervised the kitchen taste all the cupcakes so knew a professional’s opinion on which cupcake tasted best. Melissa had not done any cooking. To not consult the cooks, who were right there, is ludicrous in this decision making process. Melissa actually chose a cupcake that had failed because we had forgotten to add the correct leavening agent. She chose the worst cupcake we had!
Now, it turned out we won the challenge. Not because our cupcakes were so great but because the boys forgot to add sugar to their cupcakes. Obviously, we don’t know that when we go into the taste test so the fact that the boys’ cupcakes were so gross is meaningless in evaluating the quality of Melissa’s decision. So how is this for resulting? After the show, Joan Rivers tweeted the following:
Even though Annie was furious that Melissa presented the “wrong” cupcake, we won BECAUSE of it. Maybe she should shut up and learn
This is a classic case of resulting. Joan is making the mistake of using the result of the decision (that we won the taste test) as the criterion for evaluating the quality of the decision itself. It turns out that we could have chosen any cupcake since there was no sugar in our competitor’s cupcakes. But that doesn’t matter because we don’t know that in advance. We can make a reasonable assumption that there is sugar in the other cupcakes. So we have to decide which cupcake to bring based on that reasonable assumption. Given that, the cupcakes should have been chosen on taste. If taste was close you would then choose based on looks. But looks should not be number 1. And given that the whole part of the team that was in the kitchen was right there it would have been easy enough to consult the appropriate people about which cupcake to bring to the taste test.
In poker, players very often make the same mistake Joan does. They assume that because they are winning that they are playing well. But, very often, you can be playing very poorly and still win. You can get your money in bad and still get there. We all know this. The key to growing as a player is to avoid Joan’s mistake. It is to evaluate the decision making process without the assumption that a good result means a good decision. Being willing to acknowledge that you might be playing poorly when you are winning is a key step to improving as a player. And we all know we are willing to attribute losing to luck. In fact, we over attribute losing to luck. So be willing to do the same with winning. Be willing to attribute winning to getting lucky as well. We certainly got lucky in the cupcake challenge when the boys forgot the sugar.
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Tags: Celebrity Apprentice, Joan Rivers, Melissa Rivers
April 28th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
Annie you are the best! I dont know how you have held back from slapping those two bitches. The show has taught me alot because I can watch you in everyday situations and adapt it to poker. I listen to you on thr radio show but I feel I get more out of the Tv show because I can visually watch you work. Briliant!
April 29th, 2009 at 7:13 am
Very good point made in this blog!
I’m upset about Joans’ recent remark about poker players being trash.
Before that show aired, I had zero disrespect for Joan, regardless of her superficial persona. Now..I can’t stand her, how dare she become so disgusting and disrespectful to so many of us who love poker, obviously she shows how uneducated she is about poker.
Annie great job with staying focused, and not going tilt!
TO JOAN: DON’T CALL US TRASH UNTIL YOU SLEPT IN OUR TRAILERS!!
April 29th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
I know how Annie could restrain from slapping those two… they both were doing an excellent job smearing their own public personas, Annie could sit back and let them bury themselves. I did a sampling today on google news, reading comments people left after various articles on the Duke/Rivers’ confrontation, and it’s amazing how badly Joan and Mellissa come out after it was all said and done. Pretty embarrassing for them, I’m sure, although they were both indignant in their comments still this week. A couple of flakes to be sure. I’d love to hear Trump’s real thoughts on that. I’m sure he loved the good TV it created, but he probably felt bad they self-destructed so badly too. Keep going strong Annie… you came across looking superb over the last few episodes! Awesome poker representative.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:57 am
It seems to me that The Apprentice is ALL ABOUT resulting. No matter what happens during the tasks, Donald will always say “well you lost” and treats the losing team like, well, losers. Even though the teams may have been very close, or when the wrong team wins (this does happen, when the decisions are arbitrary). This is the most frustrating aspect of the show.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:52 am
Melissa wins the celebrity apprentice 2 yea!
May 4th, 2009 at 12:14 am
Annie,
I’ve watched you over the years and U DA GAL!
You’re Celebrity Apprentice and Poker games have been wonderful lessons inspiration for me. Hubby loves you too (we both play Texas Holdem as a hobby). YOU GO GIRL!
Can’t wait till next week for Trump’s “ANNIE, YOU’RE HIRED”.
PS. Congrats, I can’t get the great jingle out of my head – LOL!
May 4th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Annie,
Everytime I watch the show you always have a dirty mouth. Can’t you just speak without using bad words? And, yes you are a backstabber!!! Also, Joan is right! Gambling destroys families!!!!!!!!!!
May 5th, 2009 at 11:53 am
A couple of comments
@sally peterson – I don’t think i’m alone in asking “What the hell are you talking about”?
@Grace – I’m assuming you’re using your grandchildren’s internet box so you are extended the benefit of the doubt. But, saying “gambling destroys families” is like saying “hamburgers cause obesity”, or “SUVs cause car accidents”. It’s a ridiculous statement that precludes the idea that people are accountable for their own actions. But sure, Gambling destroys families the same as ignorance such as yours destroys America.
May 5th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
I find it sort of weird that that no one has pointed out that Annie Duke has gone in front of Congress to point out that poker is not gambling. It is a game of skill that is much more about the player’s ability to gauge a situation and maximize their position than luck.
If gambling were just luck (like, say, roulette,) then Annie Duke and Phil Hellmuth and our other pros would not be able to win as consistently as they do. Annie is a very capable poker player; luck is a small part of why this is true and I think that her appearances on The Apprentice have highlighted her ability to get the most out of untenable situations.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Joan Rivers is a disgrace to business woman everywhere and very low class with her vulgar language and disrespect to all people. Saying your guest a poker player would be like someone saying your just a comedian and that is despicable and your daughter does not fall far from the tree.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:07 am
I regret Joan’s Hitler and Mafia comments, but congrats to the old broad. I’m happy she won.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:07 am
annie i’m , a 75 yr old retired, everyday mother of 6. you are a winner. i would never act like joan rivers EVER!!!!! and yes i play poker
May 11th, 2009 at 2:10 am
Annie –
Tough luck! You win some and you lose some and you always bounce back. Good for the old lady!
Chris
May 11th, 2009 at 2:29 am
Annie
My wife & I have only met you once, last year at the Burbank airport last year when you were on your way to the 2008 WSOP & you were ACES. In mine & my wifes eyes you were the pure definition of business professional and robbed of victory on the Celebrity Apprentice. Sorry for your loss, keep fighting the good fight & best of luck this year at the WSOP.
We love you
Deke & Malia Acosta
May 11th, 2009 at 3:07 am
I am absolutely stunned that the likes of ms.Rivers won the celebrity apprentice..I am shocked about the way everyone ( well many) seem oblivious to her completely unbusinesslike way she handled herself in this challenge..and Annie-you were really in my opinion the true winner..
For Rivers to pontificate about “god;s work: and knowingly lie and accuse you of all the things she actually did, and for people to buy that superficial crap is beyond my comprehension,, what a frightening world we live in..
I AM ACTUALLY SO SUSPICIOUS OF HER INVOLVEMENT WITH THAT ORGANIZATION – and the only time she probably ever peeled a carrot for them was in front of the camera..what a big phoney act..
I actually will never watch that show again..Trump should have shut her down when she spewed her venom at you with that crazy daughter (the apple doesnt fall far from the tree)..and I was so proud of you when you told trump that this kind of behaviour could never be tolerated in most board rooms and could be considered actionable..(with her hate comments about hitler)..
How could the trump org not know that joan insulted the planners which totally impactedd you and you managed to rise to the occasion… I am just so disgusted that they
did not see her… i just about puked when she said fighting you was fighting evil..
I have seen evil first hand-and it is in hiding behind her
:gods work`but treating people like crap..
Your friends and poker family came through for you and I as a fairly new lover of poker applaud you for fighting for us
trash..ha..
I`m still steaming ..how the heck can she even live with herself grrrr…
Good job and thanks for representing honest hardworking
people who love poker and for the work you have done to raise awareness for your important charity..
keep smiling=
From north vancouver british columbia -lol.
May 11th, 2009 at 7:22 am
kathryn Mon, May 11, 2009 at 05:52 AM EST
Very disappointed in Celebrity Apprentice Results – game seemed rigged against you… You won the objective criteria hands down, by 3 to 1 ($ raised). So subjective criteria which is hardly discussed is awarded to Joan! Plus Joan’s distastful behavior towards you and all poker players is allowed to be celebrated and gets rewarded by Trump. Even logical Piers Morgan just buckles and says Joan won 3 of the 5 criteria! Well not so quick if you won 2 of the 5 by three to one and Joan ekked out a 51/49 split on 3 of the criteria, do the math, you still won using a weighted average method… but that would mean Trump wants fair results…. It was apparent that he didnt want fair results, glossing over the subjective criteria without discussion or use of an evaluation matrix of any kind…
I believe Poker players should avoid Trump since he rewards people who diss them. Plus awarding Joan, one of the five criteria, the celebrity experience, with her creepy impersonators over real celebrities that you had with renown Dennis Rodman, funny Tom, two boxers, world class poker players Howard, Andy, Phil, was absurd. I told my son a WPT champion to tell you I thought you were cheated if he sees you at the WSOP.
May 11th, 2009 at 9:38 am
Hi Annie, Just want you to know that if Trump actually would hire Joker Face/Howdy Doody Joan Rivers over you, he is a real Dumb Ass. I thought that you were so professional, smart, hard working and charming. There is no way that she should have beat you. You kicked her ass. I was so mad after the Finale. There is no other Boss in the world that would pick her over you. Trump must be F@#*@#g that hag.You were the best that I have ever seen on his show. Maybe we can have a Celeberity Boxing match and you can kick her ass again. I admire you and will always be A Annie fan. I would like to meet you one day. Thanks for caring about the less fortunate in the world. The world needs more people like you. I know that you will succeed at anything that you want. God Bless You. dcorley@kiswireinc.com
May 11th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Annie -
You were clearly the winner. As far as business goes, your ethics, poise and dignity far outweighed anyone on that stage.
From watching this table (TV) from the rail, it seems Trump had made his mind up, way before the season started. He chose from history not from performance. He had a history with Joan. All his “tells” indicate this.
I think a lot of us would have slapped her for the inappropriate comments spewn. It was outrageous conduct by a woman of 75. Just terrible.
Anyway, Annie, you are awesome in every aspect of your life. It was a pleasure to watch you not stoop to the lower level and stay poised.
Keep doing what you are doing. You are amazing.
May 11th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
It seems to me that you have all the poker world on your side. You have great qualities, but Joan has a great heart, and that goes with charity hand and hand. You seem cold and greedy. Sorry, that was the impression i got, but I have to admit you are very smart. You will continue being very succesful in poker.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Annie you got rivered! In all serious that was ridiculous that Joan won, I lost respect for Donald Trump and his show. There’s too much politics/past history going on and I think how big of a celebrity you are plays into it as well.
Joan was clearly worse and never could constructively argue. Any time a good point was made by Annie, Joan attacked her character and Donald did nothing.
May 11th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
I sum it up this way: Joan had a brain, courage and a heart; Annie had a brain and courage, but no heart.
May 11th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
Annie, you were robbed! Joan should not have won. I am appalled that Donald Trump picked Joan over you. She was vicious, nasty, mean and was so focused on bashing you that she did not play the game properly. If this is who Donald feels should represent corporate America, then he has much to learn himself! No way would a CEO allow this kind of behavior to happen in a boardroom. I would like to know his real reasons of picking Joan over you. I would also like to know why, when she attacked you, he did nothing, however, when you make a statement about her at the end of the show he calls you on that. Some clarification of all of this would be great because I am royally upset that it ended the way that it did.
May 12th, 2009 at 9:34 am
Annie, Thanks for showing alot of class and restraint when Joan and Melissa vented at you. I am disgusted that Donald Trump chose Joan Rivers over you. You were right if it was a real company and Joan and Melissa vented like that in the boardroom they would most likely be fired immediately. I feel Joan and Melissa are great people in some ways but went too far. I am sure their are zillions of honest down to earth poker players in our world like yourself and that was an insult to all of them. All the best to you in the future. I hope Donald uses your skills to help needy charities in the future.
May 14th, 2009 at 1:14 am
you got a bad deal, annie. no two ways about it – joan is the one who introduced vitriol to the show weeks ago. fortunately poker players know that the results are not always ‘fair’.
May 14th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Annie, your’e the best! You might have come in second, but you’re my Celebrity Apprentice winner; all class and determination! The show uses the term Project Manager; I’m a certified Project Manager (PMP) and can tell you, the show is not about Project Management! It’s an adhoc contest with Donald looking for ratings that translate into $.
Great work Annie!!!
June 14th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
My husband and I went to Biloxi, Ms. for a short vacation. Joan Rivers was preforming at the Hotel Casino we were planing on staying. I was very surprised she would preform at a place where she thinks trashy people hang out. When I learned she was preforming there, we changed our hotel to another one down the street. I would not have stayed there if they were giving the tickets to her performance away, and I was surprised a Hotel Casino would hire her. Before CA , I liked Joan Rivers and I didn’t know who you were. After the show, well, You have another fan.
June 15th, 2009 at 5:37 am
I thought the decision was fair, it was very close. I’m surprised that Joan took the attacks to that level, but then again, Annie was a very grating person who did all she could to make sure she would be in the finals. Annie backstabbed and played the game very well, choosing not to be project manager until she could get a sure win with a fund raising challenge. She badmouthed who she had to, not directly, but in coded language, and always set it up so that she would not be the one most likely to be fired.
That’s very smart, but also very grating and I can see why people would take offense. I wouldn’t have made it personal had I been playing, I would’ve just done everything possible to destroy Annie within the game, but Joan seems to take everything personally, I noticed that she became personally upset at Clint, who wasn’t even trying to push Joan’s buttons. Clint was just being himself–a stubborn guy. However I felt Annie deliberately tried to push Melissa’s and Joan’s buttons, she all but admitted it on these blogs, and Annie received what she asked for.
In a game that allows backstabbing and other devious actions, there might not be a way to get at a great backstabber other than to do what Joan did, which is a full frontal assault. She couldn’t win playing Annie’s game of subtlety, alluding to the weaknesses of others without directly pointing them out, and backtracking whenever called out on it, so she went for what she does best, an all out vicious attack on Annie.
The Apprentice is a vicious game where people have to throw each other off of the bus and set it up so that they’re not the ones who do the worst any given week. That kind of show, if played to the fullest like Annie did, will create hatred and resentment from players who either don’t want to use the same tactics, or are unable to do so as well.
Annie, you played well, but you also made enemies. I was surprised at the viciousness of Joan’s attacks, but after thinking about it, I can understand why. When you go all out and play the way you did, you kinda have to expect that not everyone will be ok with it and be able to “leave it on the court”. I think guys are much better at not taking a beatdown personally, but then again a lot of people hate Phil personally because of his “strategy” of annoying the crap out of players during a poker game.