Always be thinking one step ahead
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 - Billy Kopp
Recently while playing in a WPT event, the World Poker Finals at Foxwoods, I came across a very interesting scenario. The blinds were 100 200 with a 25 ante at a full table of 9 players. The starting stack was 30,000 chips and by this level (level 2) I had managed to increase my stack to around 69,000 chips. Early position raised to 600, (a known younger successful live and online player) and has been playing reckless early on trying to build a stack. This is a standard three times the big blind opening raise at this point. A European man to his direct left that had been playing many pots but not 3-betting often or anything too crazy just calls the raise. The action folds around to me on the button and I look down at QQ.
Typically, QQ warrants a raise a good majority of the time but early on in the tournament I elected to just call as well for multiple reasons.
1. I had not 3 bet yet and in doing so may show great strength and cause both opponents to fold.
2. The aggressive player who I know was continuation betting more than 75% of the time and I figured the same would happen here as he was out of position and I could extract more chips that way on a good flop.
3. By just calling I am completely under representing the value of my hand and can get in cheap but create a great pot post flop on great boards due to the hidden strength of my hand.
The flop comes 2 3 9 rainbow.
This is a great flop for my hand a good majority of the time. Hands like A9 suited, 45 suited, 910 suited, 1010,jj, etc. are all dogs in the hand. Surprisingly the aggressive initial raiser just checks. The European man leads for 1,000 chips into a 2,325 chip pot. I decided to raise it up to 3,000 even. The initial raiser quickly folds and the European man thinks before making it 8325….. This is the point in the hand where several things start going through my mind: 1. The European was playing lots of pots, had not shown down a monster hand and would probably re-raise a big pair pre-flop so I don’t feel that KK or AA is very likely. 2. He also knows that the aggressive player was splashing around a bit and if he called to hit a set, he may get paid off so 22 33 and 99 are all in his range for sure. 3. He could also have 1010 or JJ which he may put in another raise with, which I do beat. If I elect to call his raise here, the pot is going to be the 2325 pre-flop + 16,650 which is around 19,000 chips. He is out of position and will likely be betting anywhere from 9,000-15,000 give or take. If the turn is another blank and I call a bet the pot is now 40,000 at minimum and I would have a bit more than a pot size bet left. I believe he only started the hand with 50,000 so if he decides to not shut down, I am going to be confronted with calling off most of my 350 big blinds in a beyond marginal spot on a board that may look great originally but more than likely drawing to two outs.
In retrospect, I should have never raised QQ on the flop with the intent to fold if he came over the top. I didn’t plan in my mind what I would do in the event that the worst case scenario happened and it did. I was more worried about the initial raiser with a super wide range of hands potentially getting there on the turn and ended up raising the European to force the aggressor out. I played it slow pre-flop and should have just called the flop bet and played in position and reevaluated on other streets.
Maybe I had the best hand, who knows. It was not worth finding out with one pair for around 350 big blinds in this early marginal spot. The bottom line is that I cost myself a decent amount of chips and maybe a great pot by making a small mistake on the flop. By not thinking one step ahead and thinking about potential moves on future streets, I forced myself into having to fold a very valuable showdown hand if he has merely an unimproved 9 or the other potential hands that I have stated besides a set.
Take your time with decisions like this in tournaments and try to reason all possibilities out. Try to put your opponent on a range of hands and the best way to play yours against it in the most unpredictable way. Think strategy, and THINK AHEAD.
-Billy Kopp
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Tags: Foxwoods, Poker Poker Poker, World Poker Finals, WPT
