Celebrity Apprentice
Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - Annie Duke
Okay…so you may have noticed a theme with my blogs on Ultimatebet.com that I am always relating my experience on The Apprentice to poker strategy and today’s blog is no exception. I think that my knowledge of poker really helped me on The Apprentice. But, also, I think what happens on the Celebrity Apprentice has a lot of offer us in terms of seeing strategies and thinking that just don’t work. Last blog I talked about tilt and how bad that is in any game you play, how it is completely counterproductive. This week the topic is resulting.
Resulting is a very particular poker term that means assuming that the outcome of a decision determines the quality of a decision. This is such an important concept that poker players came up with a singular term for it: resulting. Tilt is a similar word that is so important that poker players came up with a singular word to describe the concept because we talk about it so much. So Resulting. Why is this so bad?
Well, decisions and outcomes are not linked one to one in any game that involves a random element (this includes poker, Apprentice and life). We can make very poor decisions and have good outcomes, like driving home drunk but making it safely. The fact that you lived does not mean that driving drunk is a good decision. You can also make a very good decision and have a very bad outcome, like driving home safely, following all traffic laws while sober and getting hit by a drunk driver.
How does that relate to The Apprentice? Well, in episode 1 where we had to sell cupcakes for charity, there was a surprise taste test where each team was called and told to bring their best cupcake for a taste test worth $15K to the winner. Melissa was tasked with choosing which cupcake to bring and in choosing chose the cupcake on which one looked the best as opposed to which one tasted the best. I was highly critical of that decision because, clearly, if you are choosing for a taste test you need to pick based on taste. Melissa failed to consult any of the cooks. The players who had cooked had the chef who supervised the kitchen taste all the cupcakes so knew a professional’s opinion on which cupcake tasted best. Melissa had not done any cooking. To not consult the cooks, who were right there, is ludicrous in this decision making process. Melissa actually chose a cupcake that had failed because we had forgotten to add the correct leavening agent. She chose the worst cupcake we had!
Now, it turned out we won the challenge. Not because our cupcakes were so great but because the boys forgot to add sugar to their cupcakes. Obviously, we don’t know that when we go into the taste test so the fact that the boys’ cupcakes were so gross is meaningless in evaluating the quality of Melissa’s decision. So how is this for resulting? After the show, Joan Rivers tweeted the following:
Even though Annie was furious that Melissa presented the “wrong” cupcake, we won BECAUSE of it. Maybe she should shut up and learn
This is a classic case of resulting. Joan is making the mistake of using the result of the decision (that we won the taste test) as the criterion for evaluating the quality of the decision itself. It turns out that we could have chosen any cupcake since there was no sugar in our competitor’s cupcakes. But that doesn’t matter because we don’t know that in advance. We can make a reasonable assumption that there is sugar in the other cupcakes. So we have to decide which cupcake to bring based on that reasonable assumption. Given that, the cupcakes should have been chosen on taste. If taste was close you would then choose based on looks. But looks should not be number 1. And given that the whole part of the team that was in the kitchen was right there it would have been easy enough to consult the appropriate people about which cupcake to bring to the taste test.
In poker, players very often make the same mistake Joan does. They assume that because they are winning that they are playing well. But, very often, you can be playing very poorly and still win. You can get your money in bad and still get there. We all know this. The key to growing as a player is to avoid Joan’s mistake. It is to evaluate the decision making process without the assumption that a good result means a good decision. Being willing to acknowledge that you might be playing poorly when you are winning is a key step to improving as a player. And we all know we are willing to attribute losing to luck. In fact, we over attribute losing to luck. So be willing to do the same with winning. Be willing to attribute winning to getting lucky as well. We certainly got lucky in the cupcake challenge when the boys forgot the sugar.
Tags: Celebrity Apprentice, Joan Rivers, Melissa Rivers
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Monday, April 13, 2009 - Annie Duke
Oh…no…not me. I don’t tilt when I am playing a game. I might walk away from the game and then get pissed off…but never during. Apparently, Melissa Rivers hasn’t played as much poker as I have because that girl is on tilt. And I want all the poker players watching Celebrity Apprentice to take note of Melissa’s completely tilty meltdown so they will stop freaking tilting at the tables. Melissa offers a great demonstration of how allowing emotions to rule your game decisions never results in anything good.
So, here is why Melissa is tilting. Melissa knows that if I am friends with Brande that it is bad for her. Jesse is a very strong player so it feels unlikely that Trump is going to fire him any time soon. I have been playing a strong game and I can raise money so ditto for me. That leaves Brande and Melissa as the vulnerable ones on our team. If I am unwilling to throw Brande under the bus, if I side with her, then Melissa is the likely person to go. That sent Melissa (and Joan) on a tilt like I have only ever seen from the likes of Phil!
The problem is that Joan and Melissa both directed their tilt at me. Now, first, they are spitting vitriol my way because apparently they think it is my job to save Melissa. But it is not my job to save her, that would be Melissa’s job to save Melissa. And Melissa’s reaction is counterproductive to playing the game well. She is now completely reacting (with her emotional, limbic brain) rather than planning how to stay in the game.
Every time she goes after Brande I see it. Every time she rolls her eyes or shrieks for attention I see it. Instead of settling down and working her ass off to make sure she is safe in the boardroom, she is going after Brande in a nasty, personal way (behind her back). And her attempts to be nice to Brande’s face are thinly veiled because she is too emotional to contain herself. Not a good strategy.
Compare that to Brande’s non-tilt. I was never going to recommend that Melissa go before Brande because I felt that Melissa was the stronger asset to the team. In the boardroom during the Lifelock task I made that clear. After I criticized Brande, though, she did not tilt. Instead she took a breath and realized the comments were valid (after all she had said she was drafting along behind the stronger personalities herself!). So when push came to shove she didn’t get pissed off, she didn’t tilt. Instead she just addressed the criticism and stopped doing the drafting. She started taking a leadership role, being proactive, being an asset to the team. I saw that and became her ally. Why? Because there is nothing that impresses me more than a person who admits their mistakes and learns from them. Go Brande!
So what a study in contrasts. Brande remained unemotional and redeveloped her strategy to great effect. Melissa tilted and flailed about, hurting her chances in the game because she was unable to calm down and stop letting the tilt drive her choices. Take note of this poker players. I am not sure you will see a better example in a game of why tilting is so dangerous to a successful outcome.
Play poker like Brande, not like Melissa.
Tags: Brande Roderick, Celebrity Apprentice, Joan Rivers, Melissa Rivers
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Wednesday, April 1, 2009 - Annie Duke
Okay…
so I have made it past week 5 on Celebrity Apprentice! Woohoo! The hotel challenge was possibly the most fun I had during the whole taping of the show. I seriously loved that challenge and took my job strangely seriously while doing it. So fun. Anyway, I have been starting to get asked why I have not been Project Manager yet and I thought this would be a great place to bring in some poker strategy in explaining why not. The explanation has to do with knowing your table.
In poker, when you first get moved to a table, it is important to sit back and really get to know your players if you can before getting involved in any big decisions against them. That is because the quality of any big decision you have to make, like whether to fold or call a big shove, will go up the more you know about your opponent. Think about this…what if you call, don’t get knocked out, then find out later that the guy who shoved never, ever moves in without the nuts. Wouldn’t you feel sick about your call in retrospect. Or what if it is the opposite? You have a close decision and decide to fold but then alter find out your opponent is a complete maniac who shoves on bluffs all the time. Wouldn’t you feel sick in retrospect about your fold? The fact is that our decisions at the table can only be as good as the information we have on our opponents at that moment.
My decision to delay being Project Manager was based on this. It seemed to me that before making that big and risky decision (since PM is always the most at risk for being fired if a team loses) I wanted to know my table pretty well for two reasons: 1) you have a much higher likelihood of winning a challenge if you really know your team’s strengths and weaknesses so that you can assign jobs in the most intelligent manner. If you give people jobs in that lie well within their skill sets then you are more liely to win and never have to face the board room. But 2) on the flip side, you want to know who the weak players on your team are and, particularly, who Trump THINKS the weak players are in case you lose because then you know for sure who to bring into the board room with you. Knowing who Trump is itching to fire takes some time, it takes a feel for the game, the other players and, more importantly, it takes a lot of listening carefully in the board rooms. The more of those you have under your belt before becoming PM, the more you know your table, and the better off you are in case you lose.
So, just like in poker, I really didn’t want to get involved in a big hand on Celebrity Apprentice, until I knew my table really well. Now, obviously, I don’t want to take that too far..the extreme would be never to be PM…because you need to be seen as a leader and someone who is willing to step up. So it is an interesting balance of not laying too low but waiting long enough till you have a great bead on your opponents and on Donald Trump’s opinions.
Tags: Annie Duke, Celebrity Apprentice, Donald Trump, Poker Poker Poker
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Sunday, March 22, 2009 - Annie Duke
When I found out that I was going to be part of the new season of The Celebrity Apprentice I had actually never seen the show, Celebrity version or otherwise. So, in full games player style, I got a hold of the first season of the show and watched every second of it to start devising a strategy for the game. Because that is all Apprentice is, a game. And all games have an optimal strategy.
It turns out that Apprentice is a lot like poker and I could really bring to bear quite a bit of the skill and strategy I apply to poker to this new game. First, there is a similar random factor. It helps if you happen to get tasks that are already in your skill set. Sometimes you screw up and would end up on the chopping block but your team wins so you get a pass for the week. That is luck. And sometimes Trump just takes a shine to you (or doesn’t) and that can be very helpful or really hurt you and you often have little control of that. So, just like when you get all in with AA vs 55 and a 5 hits, there are things on the game Apprentice that you really have no control over and kind of just really need those things to go your way.
That being said, you really do have control over the vast majority of things in the game. And those are the things that I really focused on. The first thing I knew what that I did not have enough celebrity to get any kind of pass early in the game. That meant that I needed to take control of the table, just like you take control of a poker table. Make people know you are there and be afraid of getting involved in a pot with you because you are dangerous. I knew I had to do this in this game so Trump would see that I was valuable on the show, that I naturally would cause controversy.
So I came in the game raising. Being aggressive. Because when you are the aggressive one, your opponents then are forced to make decisions in regards to you and that gives them opportunities to make mistakes. Taking an aggressive stance at the poker table gives you control and stops you from being nearly as handcuffed to the cards. Taking control in the Apprentice gives you a similar advantage because it allows you some leeway in the boardroom. The aggression just makes it less likely you will get fired because that is a show it is good to make waves on, just like at a poker table.
Now, when you play poker you also need to be able to change gears. Because once you have established the aggression players will start coming after you and stop giving you credit for quality hands. When that happens you need to change gears, slow it down, play against image so that players now giving you too little credit will impale themselves on the great hands you are now playing.
I did a similar thing on Apprentice. Having come out aggressive, getting focus on me, and pissing off some of my team members, I pulled it back by the time episode three rolled around. I had done my job in the first couple of tasks, gotten Trump to pay attention. Gotten my team to pay attention to my presence. But now it was time to go against image. I became the completely cooperative person who just worked my ass off and raised a ton of money. Without saying a peep. That shows versatility which is really important in the game. Players with no versatility, only one note, tend to only make it midway in that show and I was trying to play a strategy that was more likely to get long term success.
Playing the more conservative approach in episode 3 was my gear change. I sat back and started watching my competitors to see how I could manage their expectations of me in a way that would help me succeed…exactly what you do at a poker table every minute you play. Poker is all about managing people’s expectations of you. So is Apprentice.
Keep watching to see how it all plays out.
Tags: Celebrity Apprentice, Donald Trump, Poker Poker Poker
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Friday, March 13, 2009 - P0ker J0
Hello all:
Well what a busy couple of weeks it has been! My head is spinning (big 80’s hair and all) 
As I’m sure most of you know, Annie Duke is kicking some serious butt on the Celebrity Apprentice. The girls won again this past week and Annie is still a strong contender in the game. I love how she steps up to the plate and just gets shit done! I think the girls are all just getting to know her – but for those of us who know her here in the poker world – that is just how she is! Look out for another episode this coming Sunday. I believe that NBC will only show one of the two hours this Sunday with a full two hour episode airing next Saturday on March 21st. Keep an eye out for some news on the UB auction site. We will soon be auctioning off some products from the Celebrity Apprentice on the site. Stay tuned for more information!
So Annie and Phil just finished filming the ever popular NBC Heads Up Challenge. It will air some time in May I believe. I think there was some fierce competition. It is interesting to me to see how mainstream poker has become. So many celebrities from the entertainment world have made poker a big part of their lives. I know Annie drew Brad Garrett in the heads up and Don Cheadle also was invited to play. I am thrilled that he wore the UB logo for the event! He and Annie go way back as they co-founded Ante Up for Africa together.
So Phil has been a busy bee. He has started to embrace the technology available to everyone today. I’m pretty impressed – I won’t lie! He now has a Facebook page, he has his own YouTube channel and has just recently announced that he is twittering! (is that even a verb?) Check it out here!
Annie and P0ker H0 will not be hosting The Ultimate Poker Show on Rounders Radio this Sunday (the great Hollywood Dave will be at the mic!). They are both teaching at the World Series of Poker Academy in Vegas. Always a good crowd with lots of poker knowledge flying around. P0ker H0 even told me he went to Vegas on a private jet!! I just hope his ego doesn’t start to get big! Actually – who am I kidding?? His ego is already big enough!
Well I think that is all for now – will be back next week! Have a super week and chat soon.
P0ker J0
p.s..did anyone notice how I didn’t manage to get a Bon Jovi mention this blog?? 
I couldn’t quite find a way to get him in there.
Tags: Annie Duke, brad garrett, Celebrity Apprentice, don cheadle, Facebook, Phil Hellmuth, rounders radio, Twitter, World Series of Poker Academy, YouTube
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Friday, March 13, 2009 - UB Marketing
Hasn’t this year gone real fast? Its amazing!… we are already in the middle of March and that can only mean one thing: WSOP IS COMING SOON!!
This year the WSOP is featuring a brand new tournament which is a $40k NL Holdem event. Several UB pros will be attending this exclusive tourney and if you want to join Phil, Annie and the rest of the UB team remember that for $530 every Sunday @ 20:30 you have a chance to win a $12k guaranteed package to the Main Event.
UB couldn’t be happier; we already have over 20 players going to WSOP and every week more players are qualifying! Remember that Steps in UB offer you an option to win your WSOP $12k package for just $0.10… That is the cost of our 1st Step and if you achieve to win all 10 of them you will be winning the WSOP $12k package! Win all the way from Step 1 making a $0.10 investment and UB will send you to Aruba 100% Free! $20k for $0.10, there can’t be a better deal.
As most of you know, our dear pro Annie Duke is participating in the Celebrity Apprentice. We at UB are very proud of this and in order to support her we are running a weekly 500 ub points buy in tourney every Sunday @ 22:00 (right after the show) that guarantees one seat to The Apprentice Challenge Main Event May 18th were the winner will take home an $8500 aruba package. Daily satellites are running as well so be sure to check http://www.ultimatebet.com/poker-promotion/celebrity-apprentice.
Things at UB have been busy, and product of our effort is the $220k Points Race. This promo is already becoming an essential part of UB. Our players deserve the best and that’s why we are giving $220.000 just for the players. To win a chunk of the prize all you have to do is play and as you ahieve RAISE status points you’ll be moving up the leaderboard. On April 1st we’ll take a look at the leaderboard and top 200 players will be taking home huge prize… First place has assured $15k of those funds.
Great things are coming to UB and huge promotions are being planned so make sure to pay us a visit from time to time and don’t forget visit http://www.ultimatebet.com/poker-promotion for the hottest poker promotions out there.
Later!
Tags: Celebrity Apprentice, Promotions, ub marketing, WSOP
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Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - Josh
New York is a thrilling rush and no one is better at handling adrenaline than a poker player. That’s why Annie Duke is taking her psychological abilities from the poker tables onto Celebrity Apprentice’s boardrooms.
If her participation on NBC’s show is analyzed, it is easy to understand why she is the queen of poker. Definitely, this woman knows what she wants and she goes to any extent to get it. She’s an achiever, with a clear goal in mind: the journey’s distractions don’t derail her from the path she has set for her.
Even when some other contestants don’t have second thoughts whenever they have a chance to jump all over her, Annie remains calm and focused. She clearly knows about strategy and, even though this is a game where no chips at are stake, she holds her cards tight. Although she’s not speaking about poker on Celebrity Apprentice, her actions speak louder than any words could…
If scrutinized, the tactics she uses on the boardroom can be smoothly translated onto the tables. What better lesson than wearing comfy shoes when you know you’ll have to run NY streets to accomplish a task? While others wear Manolo Blahniks even for hiking, Annie knows when to leave her Pradas at home… Just like that, a good player studies the opponent’s trademarks before the games begin. A poker icon knows the grounds where the battle will take place and will practice the moves in advance. Poker is as intricate as real life, we might as well learn from Duke since she is definitely making the best out of hers.
Tags: ANNIE, Annie Duke, Celebrity Apprentice, Duke, NBC, New York, poker psychology, Poker Strategy
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Sunday, March 1, 2009 - Gene Bromberg
Not so long ago you couldn’t turn on the TV without quickly coming across a poker show. Some of these were good (the World Poker Tour, ESPN’s World Series coverage), some were bad (Poker Royale: Battle of the Sexes, which is to my mind the Worst Show in the History of Mankind). The thing is just about EVERYONE had a poker show. I think at one point even the Food Network had a poker pilot in production.
And then, almost as quickly, poker seemed to vanish from the tube. The market was probably oversaturated for a time and the game’s popularity leveled after years of explosive growth. But new shows continued to debut–The Best Damn Poker Show, of course, and the canonical High Stakes Poker–and if you do some channel surfing tonight you might think we’ve flashed back to the halcyon days of 2004.
That’s because there’s a metric ton of pokery goodness on TV tonight, including two big debuts–Annie Duke begins weeks of ruthless boardroom battling on NBC’s Celebrity Apprentice, and High Stakes Poker makes it’s long-awaited return for it’s fifth season. ESPN is showing the final table of the World Series of Poker-Europe, and both GSN and FSN will be showing World Poker Tour events. If you’re confused about which shows will be airing when (and where), here are the listings, with the new episodes bolded:
6 pm
ESPN2 – WSOP Europe
GSN – High Stakes Poker
7 pm
ESPN2 – WSOP Europe
GSN – High Stakes Poker
8 pm
ESPN2 – WSOP Europe
GSN – High Stakes Poker
9pm
NBC – Celebrity Apprentice
ESPN2 – WSOP Europe
GSN – High Stakes Poker
10 pm
NBC – Celebrity Apprentice
ESPN2 – WSOP Europe
GSN – World Poker Tour
11 pm
ESPN2 – WSOP Europe
GSN – World Poker Tour
FSN – World Poker Tour
12 midnight
GSN – High Stakes Poker
1 am
GSN – World Poker Tour
2 am
GSN – World Poker Tour
I’m almost giddy with excitement as High Stakes Poker is one of my favorite shows of all time, one that saw Gabe Kaplan retake his rightful place in American pop culture. I’m not much of a fanboy, I don’t get all giggly around the high and mighty, but in 2007 my buddy Craig was covering the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event and Kaplan was trying (and failing) to get a cocktail server’s attention. Craig asked Kaplan what he wanted and headed out of the Amazon Room to secure the desired bottle of Gatorade. Gabe tried to give Craig a tip but as a working journalist he declined. After he told the story I breathlessly asked “Did you grab the bottle when he finished??? Did you get it autographed??”
“You’re pathetic,” Craig said, disgusted.
And perhaps Craig is right. Perhaps. But I for one will not feel pathetic as I pop the corn and snuggle into my comfyiest chair to indulge in a night of non-stop poker programming.
Tags: annie duke celebrity apprentice, annie duke on the apprentice, Celebrity Apprentice, gabe kaplan, high stakes poker, poker royale worst show in history, the apprentice, World Poker Tour, world series of poker europe, world series of poker europe final table, WPT
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Friday, February 27, 2009 - P0ker J0
Hello fellow UB’ers.
Could it really be all about me? Just for once?? – nah!
Well another month is upon us. March already? It won’t be long before the snow melts (well at least here in Canada) and the spring flowers will start to emerge. I LOVE the Spring – even though it usually means i’m another year older! Yep – it’s P0ker J0’s birthday this Sunday. I’m looking forward to some down time which may or may not include some red wine and listening to some……yep……Bon Jovi!
So – even MORE important than my birthday on Sunday is the premiere of the Celebrity Apprentice II. Catch Annie Duke across the boardroom table from Donald Trump. I’ve mentioned this show in previous BLOGs but now that it is imminent – I won’t lie – I’m so excited to watch it. UB has come up with a pretty cool promotion to support the show. You can play alongside Annie on Sundays on UB for a chance to win a free trip to Aruba! Click here for the details - and spread the word. Go Annie go!
Speaking of Annie and how competitive she is, did you read the prop bet she has with Hollywood Dave?? Check out his BLOG here. How crazy are my pros? This will be a fun one to follow!
So speaking of BLOGs, I found Phil Hellmuth’s this week a good read. He refers to a hand he called at the Premiere Poker League III. Check it out here. I loved watching that video link!
Speaking of video links (notice all the segues i’m doing today?? what’s with that??) Anyway – coming soon you will be able to see your pro blogs in video format. You’ll be able to know the exact week that Hollywood Dave changes his hair color or if P0ker H0 has a zit or if Scott Ian changes the color of his beard. Sooooooooo much to look forward to.
Ok – I clearly need a coffee. Have a super week. Don’t forget to tune into Celebrity Apprentice Sunday night.
P0ker J0 Out!
Tags: Annie Duke, Bon Jovi, Celebrity Apprentice, Phil Hellmuth, poker league, Scott Ian
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Friday, February 20, 2009 - P0ker J0
Well hello from the pro corner!
Well another week has flown by. I so love having my BLOGs posted on a Friday where I’m all giddy excited about the weekend. Not that I do too much – but still there is something about being able to say T.G.I.F.
As the pro manager – I don’t get too many days off. It does tend to be a 24/7 type of job, but i can’t lie – I LOVE my job!! Team UB have really become family to me. As you can imagine, there are many different personalities within the team – but they are all special to me in their own unique way. (even the ones that call me at 11:00 PM on a Saturday night )
Anyway – we have seen a good UB turnout at the LA Poker Classic. Annie Duke and Phil Hellmuth fought hard in the HORSE and the Heads Up tournaments but we still have the main event to look forward to! We’ve seen Hollywood Dave kicking some serious ass in the side games and Tiffany Michelle doing a great job both at the tables and in front of the camera – as always. Check out her interview on FSN.com I wish the best of luck to all my Team UB members at the tables!
Well Mr Scott Ian has been earning some quality frequent flyer miles. He has just been in London for a week. He said it was for some R&R but I saw some pictures on the internet of him playing hard at the Anvil/Cauldron movie screening at the Shepards Bush Empire. Check him out sporting his UB t-shirt! Gotta love Scott Ian! Don’t forget – by this time next week – all will be revealed regarding the Scott Ian promotion I was eluding to last week. Bon Jovi who????
Well only one more week before the Celebrity Apprentice starts staring our very own Annie Duke. I simply cannot wait to watch! Here is a snippet of her profile on NBC and check this out where Annie Duke shows that she has strong opinions on where the women’s team should set up shop for one of the challenges. I know Annie quite well – and I can tell you she is the most competitive woman I have ever met! I don’t think the other contestants have a chance!
Phil Hellmuth has been a busy guy lately as well. In preparation for the upcoming WSOP – which also happens to be the 20th anniversary since he won his main event title in 1989 – he is being sought after by many of the big poker magazines for cover shoots/interviews etc. Will this be the year that Phil wins bracelet #12? Could this be the year where he celebrates his 20th year with anohter main event win? Either way – it will be exciting! Phil will be on top of his game – ready to make waves. Check out this link where Sports Illustrated asked him to be part of their “Celebrity Picks to win the Daytona 500″. Never short on words, check out this link where Phil is highlighted in “15 outs…one time”. 15 questions – all the poker knowledge you can handle at one time. See what Phil is saying about the 2009 WSOP schedule, his side projects, Super Bowl Sunday and more. Enjoy!
Well I think that is all she wrote for this week. A kind of warm, fuzzy love fest really – but hey -it can happen once in a while. And just in case you were wondering if the hubby came through on Valentine’s Day – kind of. I received a lovely card. I think he felt that the fact the card did not come from the dollar store was gonna get him some brownie points. Not so much!!
Enjoy your week!
P0ker J0
Tags: Annie Duke, Anvil/Cauldron, Bon Jovi, Celebrity Apprentice, Daytona 500, FSN, h.o.r.s.e., Hollywood Dave, LA Poker Classic, Phil Hellmuth, Scott Ian, Shepards Bush Empire, Sports Illustrated, Tiffany "Tiffany M" Michelle, WSOP
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