From The Felt: Some Basic Poker Hand Probabilities

Monday, May 18, 2009 - John Greene

This is a quick and dirty guide to hand probabilities in five-card poker that I whipped up for a friend who was chasing hands that were out of his reach. I’ve found that a lot of new players need this sort of basic orienteering because it’s sort of shocking how difficult it can be to get a poker hand for a beginner.

Tags: poker hand odds, poker odds, poker probabilities

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From The Felt: Poker Hand Rankings

Monday, April 6, 2009 - John Greene

You know, sometimes everyone needs a reminder.  Here’s the traditional poker hand rankings with some brief explanations, inspired by a truly stupid argument I witnessed between two people this weekend who should know better. Thank god Omaha Hi/Lo wasn’t being played or we would have been burying a body in the desert.

A straight flush is the best hand you can have in poker: five cards of the same suit in sequence, such as JT987 of clubs. It’s ranked by the top card, so that AKQJT is the best of the best straight flushes, also called a royal flush. The ace can also be used to play low to make 5432A, the lower straight flush.

Four of a kind is, four cards of the same rank with an additional card known as a kicker, like 44442. It’s ranked by the four cards that rank together: 44442 beats 3333K before being ranked by the side card, so that 4444A beats 4444K.

A full house is three cards of the same rank with a pair of another, like 888AA.  Like the four of a kind, it’s ranked by the trips, so that 44422 would best 333AA, and then ranked by the pair, so that 444AA beats 444KK.

A flush is any five cards of the same suit, like AT863 of hearts. It’s ranked by the top card, and then by the next card, and so on for all five cards: AJ942 beats AJ876. Contrary to popular belief, suits are not used to break ties.

A straight, five cards in exact numeric sequence, such as 65432. The ace can play either high or low, making AKQJT and 5432A. While it’s not uncommon for people to allow “around the corner” straights like 32AKQ  in home games, it’s usually not something you see in poker rooms at casinos or in tournaments,

Three of a kind would be hree cards of the same rank and two kickers of different ranks, such as KKK84. It’s ranked by the three card, so  KKK84 beats QQQAK and then ranked by the two kickers, so 999KJ beats 66684.

Two pair is two cards of one rank, two cards of another rank, and a then a “kicker” card from a third rank, such as AA993. Again, it’s ranked by the top pair, then the bottom pair and finally the kicker, so that KK449 beats any of QQJJA, KK22Q, and KK445.

One pair is  two cards of one rank accompanied by three other cards of different ranks, such as AAK53. It’s ranked by the pair, followed by each kicker in turn, so that JJK53 beats JJK32.

High card can be played from any hand that does not qualify as one of the better hands above, such as KJ542 of mixed suits. Play works like it does for flushes: by the top card, then the second card and so on for all five cards.  Again, suits are not used to break ties.

Tags: poker basics, poker hand, poker hand rankings, poker hands, poker instruction

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The Final Table Jitters

Monday, March 30, 2009 - John Greene

The first time you’re at the final table for any tournament is an experience that can only be described as “nerve-wracking.” I remember a player I know telling me that getting into the final table of a WPT event was worse than the jitters he’d experienced before getting married – he didn’t have the chance to walk away with $250k when he exchanged rings and I’ve felt that nausea that’s a mix of elation and terror myself a few times. There’s a few things you can do to help mitigate this fear, though.

Play The Cards You Are Given
Throughout the majority of the tournament, a good player can do well using his cards and the basic mathematics of poker. In fact, you may well have an advantage over your opponents when you play the game and not the people: bluffing and flashy play tends to come from a certain type of player – the kind you never see at the final table. It’s tight, smart tournament players that get to the end and it’s where the true spirit of the game can come out.

At The Final Table, Play The Players
Math means less when you reach the final table of a poker tournament and the human factor kicks in. It’s obvious that everyone who reaches this point knows the game knows the risks and knows what cards you’re likely (and not) to be holding. Tight players can be knocked out by early bluffing and it might be possible to take big chunks of their bankroll before they even know what’s happening.

In The End, It Might As Well Be Called Luck
If you’re at the final table, you know what starting hands to play and you know when the odds say you should punch out. The problem is that every other player knows this and has gotten to their position by playing smart poker. You’ll have to take some real risks and be willing to be gutshot if you’re aiming at the big slice of the pie, and the sooner you become used to the idea, the sooner you’ll be able to go for it without vomiting.

(Yeah, that happened to me once. I don’t want to talk about it.)

If you’ve reached the final table of a tournament, it’s guaranteed that your entry fee has been taken care of and you’ll be walking away with a healthy profit. It’s maximizing that profit that you’ll have to focus on if you want to play like the pros.

Tags: final poker table, Online Poker, Poker Poker Poker, Poker Strategy, poker tournament, WPT

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From The Felt: Not All Video Games Are Evil

Monday, March 23, 2009 - John Greene

Let’s talk about an unpleasant fact that most poker players are going to have to deal with at some time or another: sometimes, you shouldn’t play. Whether it’s mere tiredness, a run of bad luck that has you spooked, or even that thing none of us want to discuss – old age – sometimes you need to take a step back and let yourself recharge. This is especially important in the weeks leading up to the WSOP and other big tournaments, where you can burn yourself out without even realizing it.

So, let’s say you self-diagnose and decide you need some time away from the poker tables – what can you do to get your edge back? Get yourself a Nintendo DS. No, I am not making this up. Yes, I know how crazy it sounds, but the DS has a plethora of games that can help you rebuild your reflexes and memory skills in a low-stress environment that doesn’t involve putting thousands of dollars on the rail and looking over your glasses at someone else.

The Brain Age series of memory, concentration, and math is the most famous, and for good reason. Using the built-in tutorial, you create a personal regimen of math, geometry, and reading tutorials that build up your retention and processing ability on the fly. When I first started playing the game (after a particularly disastrous wipeout in a tournament series that shall go unnamed,) my “brain age” was fifteen years older than I actually am. After a couple of weeks using the original Brain Age game every morning after breakfast, I got my cognitive skills down to that of a teenager, and we know how devious and tricky they can all be.

Much sillier but no less valuable is Elite Beat Agents, in which you help a group of dancing and singing superstars bring joy and harmony to the world using the DS’s stylus. No, I am not making this up. The little plastic pen with the Ds allows you to tap, drag, and spin various controllers on the game’s touch screen in time to the game’s music and what starts off as a pretty simple timing exercise becomes a real workout of your reflexes in the final levels, even on the easiest settings.

Then there’s Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars, which I’ve now claimed as my planes-and-trains game of choice. No, it has no redeeming qualities, but getting to explore Liberty City and deal drugs out of the back of a van from a device that fits into my pocket is amusing as all get out. I just have to make sure I have the Crosswords game cart nearby so the better half doesn’t call me out on my “therapy.”

So, the next time you’re experiencing table burnout, maybe it’s time to focus on another type of game for a while. I’ve found that it helps tremendously, but you don’t have to take my word on it. Try it out yourself!

Tags: brain age, elite beat agents, grand theft auto, nintendo DS, Poker Poker Poker, video games

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From The Felt: They might not be very good at poker.

Monday, March 9, 2009 - John Greene

You’re in a tournament where the blinds have hit 750/1500.  You’re trucking right along, playing the game as best you can and suddenly you catch this guy catching a lucky draw after betting heavily.  The next time, they play heavily on a pair when there’s a straight flush resting on the table staring at everyone.  After that, they win a small amount from pocket rockets when the board has number salad and one low-endface card.  What’s going on?

They just might not be very good at poker.

I know, it seems amazing that someone who’s not very good at poker can get as far as those sorts of blinds but I’ve seen it happen more than once and worse than that, I’ve seen seasoned players who have no small amount of talent fall to the idiot savants who practice the zen art of sucking.  There’s a couple of reasons why, but the main one has to do with their tells.  Every hand they’ve held is important to them and you get more and more tells so there’s a confirmation bias occurring when they do actually end up getting gutpunched on AA or KK.

It’s usually because they’re new to the game and it can be difficult to suss out if this is an act (I’ve seen less aggressive/stupid behavior at the table) or someone is being genuine in their inability to go in for the kill, but my general advice is to play a little more conservatively around these people instead of trying to guess when they’re actually bluffing.  It’s better to let yourself get bluffed and lose blinds than be wrong and hand over too much of your stack.  Let someone else fall on their sword in their efforts to take down the new guy.

Tags: bluffing, Poker Strategy, the zen art of sucking

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From The Felt: I watched a reality TV show, but that’s ok!

Monday, March 2, 2009 - John Greene

Did anyone else catch Our Lady Of The Chips, Annie Duke, last night on NBC’s Celebrity Apprentice? You can tell she’s a poker player because of the way she went in with a strategy constantly. Every step of the way, the first thing she did was identify mistakes that contestants last season had made and suggest ways to avoid doing the same. While this can certainly help her team play well, I wonder if she’s actually aware that Donald Trump frequently doesn’t give a damn whether or not something is actually a good or bad idea before declaring it thus. either way, I’m going to watch for as long as she’s on and I hope she raises a lot of money for Refugees International. You can find out more about her appearance on the show and the charity she’s supporting on the Refugees International site.

And on the poker strategy side, here’s an excerpt from The Art Of War: “By holding out advantages to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near. ” In other words, even when you’re using chips and cards and iPods and sunglasses instead of swords and shields and spears and bows and arrows, bluffing is an important part of any battle. Practice your poker face for live play for a while today and then hit our tables and look at how you’re giving yourself away whenever when playing poker online.

Tags: Annie Duke, Celebrity Apprentice, the art of war

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The Art Of War And Poker.

Monday, February 23, 2009 - John Greene

The Art Of War (Sun Tzu’s ancient military tome, not the excruciating Westley Snipes movie) offers a lot of advice to the poker player. I was given a copy a couple of decades ago by my grandfather, who said it was a good guide to playing chess, but I’ve discovered that it works beautifully as a guide to poker play that how to be player that no only wins, but wins well. Here’s Section III, in which the philosopher and military expert extolls the virtues of winning through strategy.

1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.


2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.


3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.


4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.


5. Security against defeat implies defensive tactics; ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive.


6. Standing on the defensive indicates insufficient strength; attacking, a superabundance of strength.


7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves; on the other, a victory that is complete.


8. To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence.


9. Neither is it the acme of excellence if you fight and conquer and the whole Empire says, “Well done!”


10. To lift a rabbit pelt is no sign of great strength; to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear.


11. What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.


12. Hence his victories bring him neither reputation for wisdom nor credit for courage.


13. He wins his battles by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated.


14. Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy.


15. Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.


16. The consummate leader cultivates the moral law, and strictly adheres to method and discipline; thus it is in his power to control success.


17. In respect of military method, we have, firstly, Measurement; secondly, Estimation of quantity; thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances; fifthly, Victory.


18. Measurement owes its existence to Earth; Estimation of quantity to Measurement; Calculation to Estimation of quantity; Balancing of chances to Calculation; and Victory to Balancing of chances.


19. A victorious army opposed to a routed one, is as a pound’s weight placed in the scale against a single grain.


20. The onrush of a conquering force is like the bursting of pent-up waters into a chasm a thousand fathoms deep.

Tags: art of war, Poker Strategy, sun tzu

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From The Felt: Stacked

Monday, February 16, 2009 - John Greene

Last time, I reviewed short-stack strategy in games and how it can help you out, now let’s talk about a more pleasant problem to have during a poker tournament: maximizing the time you spend having the biggest stack and how you can hold onto it.

The big stack means that you’re the Boss Hogg of the country that is the poker tables and everyone else is them Duke boys.  Sure, they may be able to zip around and nip at you, but you can have throw them in the pokey before they know what happened.  Make looser calls and limp into the hands that you’d turn your nose up at most of the time.  (They’re very likely to not break out without the help of dynamite, either.)  You’d likely never dream of playing 6/7 or 7/8 at the beginning of a tournament, but if you can afford to run the odds and play loosely, do it.

Forcing your opponent to put their whole stack out there when you have a good starting hand is also a must.  If you’ve got KK or QQ, go for it and make them pay if they want to play against you.  Having a big stack means that you can lose a bit on hands like that if they do have something better and it means that every move you make intimidates the competition.

Later in any tournament, using your stack as well as your cards is very important.  While you shouldn’t go all-in on every hand, being able to confidently work your way up from the bottom of the final tables.  The more chips you bring in from the bottom, the more you can pay against succeeding levels.

Tags: big stack, playing with a big stack, Poker Strategy, stack strategy

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From The Felt: Short Stacks

Monday, February 9, 2009 - John Greene

Let’s talk about short stacks in cash games for a minute.  Cash games, if you never noticed, are different from a tournament in one very real way: not everybody who sits down has the same number of chips.  We’ve all sat down at a table and thought we were doing OK until some yahoo with more chips than sense that can bully their way around drops down and turns the table into a…I’ll call it a <EM>Richard</EM>-waving contest.  There are advantages to having a short stack, though.

First, you’re minimizing your risk when you pay with a short stack.  If you have fewer poker chips in front of you, you’ve got fewer poker chips to lose.  The inverse of this is, of course, that you’ve got payoffs that are minimized.  If you’ve got 25x the big blind, you can only win 25x the big blind when you have a fantastic hand.

Secondly, decisions are going to come much easier for you.  If you know you’ve got a decent hand, but not the best possible hand, it’s a lot more simple for you to play the hand with fewer chips.  You get money in the pot without having to worry too much about drawing hands, two pairs, or anything else that might come your way.  The only real concern about playing when short stacked is to get money in the pot while you’re good and doing so on the flop or turn.  Doing it there means you don’t have to make that difficult a decision when the river comes ’round.

Finally, and this ties into the previous benefit, it’s going to be easier to walk away from a hand.  I’ve seen myself chase bad hands when I had a bulging bankroll, and lost more money than I should have on a whim, instead of playing poker the way I’ve preached for the last two decades.

Of course, if your decisions are easier, so are your opponents.  You’re going to have a hard time bluffing when short-stacked and you may find yourself going for the flop or giving up.   In some ways, short stack play is the best thing for players new to the game, and I could even argue that it’s the purest form of poker there is.

Tags: From the Felt, Poker Strategy

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On Having A “Doyle Brunson”

Monday, February 2, 2009 - John Greene

You ever have one of those friends who loves to make sure that you know they’ve read more than their share when it comes to poker books, poker websites, poker news, etc?  Not that I’m not guilty of it myself, but I generally assume that my associates know that I am a hyperintelligent poker oracle and I don’t really need to show it off by spouting off knowledge when we could be talking about something else, like how I shouldn’t be buying any more rounds because I paid for the first two or three.  (This strategy, by the way, is one of my favorites.  When your first few friends arrive at the pub, cover them.  By the time the group reaches critical mass, you’re out of the rounds loop because you covered the first few.)

Anyway.  This hanger-on in my circle of pals is Jimmy.  Jimmy is one of those guys.  He’s always using the slang, to the point where a conversation with him requires a translator.  Someone wanted to know how the tables were treating me and I told them fine and we all moved on, until Jimmy suddenly pipes up with “Hey, John!  I was in a game at the Wynn a couple of weeks ago and punched out at the best time.  When I was up by $3,000, I got a Doyle Brunson and saw it was a sign.”

This grinds the entire rest of the conversation (which I think was about Blu-Ray players and how I’m not going to buy one) to a halt.  I ask Jimmy which Doyle Brunson and he lets me know it was Ace/Queen, a hand that “the man never plays.”

At this, I rolled my eyes.  “Brunson plays that hand all the time.  He even changed the wording in his SuperSystem book a while back to say he tries not to play it.”

“You don’t know what you’re talking about,” Jimmy responds.

Don’t you love it when you can wipe a smile off a schmuck’s face when they’re being extra schmucky?

“I know I’ve seen him play it on at least two of those poker shows, plus he got bumped from the WSOP main event in 07 while holding it.”

Jimmy still didn’t believe.  He was willing to wager some single-malt on his sureness.  Well, then it got interesting for me.  I pulled out my Blackberry, fired up Google, and had him at the bar within 60 seconds.  While I do think there’s a lot of pocket cards you shouldn’t play, or hands that look stronger than they really are, there’s very few hands that you’ll never play.

Tags: ace queen, doyle brunson, Poker Strategy

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